Should be repealed protection measures?
How and when should protective measures in times of Corona relaxed without increasing the risk for a second infection wave? The results of a new study from the University of Oxford will help to clarify precisely these questions.
In a research work of the internationally recognised University of Oxford and the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Wallingford, was examined, when and as the vesting requirements due to Corona can be relaxed. The results of the study were published in the English scientific journal “Frontiers in Public Health”.
During the first wave of the COVID-19-subsiding pandemic in Europe, loosening many of the countries of your lock requirements. Nevertheless, non-system, it is recommended relevant work forces to work to the opportunity to continue to from home. In addition, numerous protection measures apply, depending on the state, will continue to be. Here is the important question of when these measures can be lifted for that.
Effective strategy was determined by a Model
The researchers analyzed the number of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and again recovering (or deceased) persons in the United Kingdom, with the help of Models, separately for the quarantined, and the normal working people. So you were able to determine the best strategy for the relaxation of the current lock downs. The created model was kept relatively simple in order to make the results easier to interpret and to allow an application also in other countries.
Health services may not be overwhelmed
The greatest number of working people should be allowed to work in consideration of a sufficient distance, without overwhelming the health services, explained to the research group. However, it should be is hard to predict what happens exactly, when the Lockdown ends, because different people will react differently to loosening. However, if is considered a large enough group of people, be mathematical models in the location of the expected average behavior of a large population group.
All possible scenarios should be taken into account
The most important thing is to take into account a wide range of possible scenarios, stress the researchers. A number of possible infection increases could be investigated. Current Tests are important to check, whether a disease increase exceeds the predicted limits.
What is the best strategy?
The research group came to the conclusion that the optimal strategy would be to lay off about half of the population two to four weeks after the end of the first Infection peak from the Lockdown. Then three or four months should be waited until a possible second peak is passed, before finally, the Lockdown for all other people, is repealed. So the deaths can be minimized and at the same time, the economy can be protected.
What determines an optimal solution?
The optimal solution depends mainly on the (little-known) recovery rate of the COVID-19 ill people and the Rate of transmission of the virus, reports the researchers. Less decisive is the mortality rate and incubation time, for example.
Lockdown first override for younger people
While the model does not require self-who can be first out of the Lockdown is released, the Team that this should be the younger part of the population. It is known that younger people are less prone to COVID-19. The respective groups of the population should be monitored with the help of Tests, however, since they would be exposed to an increased risk.
Caution when lifting of the lock downs
The message of the research group is that decision-makers should be very careful. Any loosening of the Lockdown must be monitored very closely. The study created a model to show that new waves of Infection can occur very quickly, if the transmission rates are higher than expected or if more people loosen up as expected their actions.
Tests need to be extended
The delayed incubation period between infection and the onset of symptoms means that the impact of the disease occur with a few days delay. Only if the Tests are intensified, and we can get an accurate picture of the spread and control of disease is, explain the researchers. This way it is possible to react quickly when an uncontrollable second wave occurs. (as)
Authors and source of information
This Text meets the requirements of the medical literature, medical guidelines, as well as current studies and was examined by doctors and Medical scientists.